This interactive tool models the job creation and unemployment impacts of a more circular economy in 2030 for different constituencies in Germany, Italy, Poland and Great Britain. It shows three scenarios reflecting different levels of ambition.
This tool is based on work published in two Green Alliance reports in 2015, which outline our methodology in detail:
Gross jobs are the total new jobs created through circular economy activities, after subtracting jobs lost in linear industries (such as landfill in the case of recycling). We only calculate direct jobs creation, and ignore indirect or induced jobs.
Net jobs are the jobs filled by unemployed people rather than those who already have a job. To calculate this, we modelled how circular economy jobs reduce structural mismatch (the problem of jobs not being created in the areas or occupations that need them). Overall, between a quarter and a third of circular economy jobs reduce this structural unemployment: the type that persists even when economies are strong.
The reduction in unemployment rate is the change from the 2014 rate of unemployment after the addition of net jobs in 2030. Savings on unemployment costs are calculated as the average spent on unemployment payouts per person in that country multiplied by the number of net jobs created.
Scenario 1: No new initiatives
Existing circular economy policies continue, no new initiatives developed
Scenario 2: Steady policy development
New policies developed at the same rate as in previous years (roughly matching the effect that the European Commission’s 2014 Circular Economy Package could have had on circular economy activities)
Scenario 3: Transformation
Very ambitious circular economy transition over the next fifteen years
The core assumptions across the scenarios are set out below.
| No new initiatives | Steady policy development | Transformation | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recycling rate | 55% | 70% | 85% |
| Remanufacturing rate (in suitable industries) | existing | 20% | 50% |
| Increase on current reuse rates | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Increase on current servitisation rates | 5% | 30% | 100% |
| Increase on current circular bioeconomy activities | 5% | 30% | 100% |
The regions modelled in the study are NUTS1 regions, which in Italy and Great Britain are the same as the European parliamentary constituencies. For Poland and Germany, MEPs have been matched to the regions where they are most active.